SuperCarSunday March 6

[Doug Liedblad]

Anyone up for a meet at SCS with a drive to the Rock Store or other destination?

[slomove]

Sounds good. I think we can make it.

[Capt Rex]

Doug, just checked the forecast... 70% chance rain Sunday :-(.

Spring has sprung and the hills are beautiful... I'm in if the forecast changes!

[Doug Liedblad]

I am in as long as it is not raining. In spite of what the forecast says.

[slomove]

Well, let's watch it. I am not too much into rain driving if I can avoid it.

[Doug Liedblad]

I thought you had a top?

I don't want to drive in the rain either but it ain't raining yet.

[tipridr]

A potent but very fast moving cold front will whip through the
area either saturday night or sunday morning. The gfs and ecmwf
remain at odds with the timing, and the gfs clearly is the
stronger of the two with much better pva and stronger southerly
flow, but the gfs is about 6 hours slower. Both solutions would
support about 3 hours of at least moderate to heavy rain with the
front, but even without convection the gfs solution might be
bordering on rainfall rates of a half inch per hour, which opens
the door for possible burn area issues. So will have to monitor
this over the next couple days.

[Doug Liedblad]

A potent but very fast moving cold front will whip through the
area either saturday night or sunday morning. The gfs and ecmwf
remain at odds with the timing, and the gfs clearly is the
stronger of the two with much better pva and stronger southerly
flow, but the gfs is about 6 hours slower. Both solutions would
support about 3 hours of at least moderate to heavy rain with the
front, but even without convection the gfs solution might be
bordering on rainfall rates of a half inch per hour, which opens
the door for possible burn area issues. So will have to monitor
this over the next couple days.

Please define gfs, ecmwf, and pva for us ignorant folk.

Thanks

Doug

[Sean]

A potent but very fast moving cold front will whip through the
area either saturday night or sunday morning. The gfs and ecmwf
remain at odds with the timing, and the gfs clearly is the
stronger of the two with much better pva and stronger southerly
flow, but the gfs is about 6 hours slower. Both solutions would
support about 3 hours of at least moderate to heavy rain with the
front, but even without convection the gfs solution might be
bordering on rainfall rates of a half inch per hour, which opens
the door for possible burn area issues. So will have to monitor
this over the next couple days.

Please define gfs, ecmwf, and pva for us ignorant folk.

Thanks

Doug

I was thinking the same, so looked 'em up:
GFS = Global Forecasting System
ECMWF = European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting
PVA = ...?

Initial results show the following possibilities:

Paralyzed Veterans of America
Performing and Visual Arts programs at Wiley H. Bates Middle School and Brooklyn Park Middle School (grades 6-8)
Polyvinyl Alcohol (makes for a nasty martini I'd bet)
Polyvinyl Acetate
Precision Valve and Automation
Potomac Valley Association
Penn Virginia Corp.
Passenger Vessel Association
Property Value Administrator

Two out of three ain't bad, I guess. Anyway, now I'm wondering what the "...possible burn area issues" phrase means?

[Doug Liedblad]

You could also get a forecast like this:

KVNY 021740Z 0218/0318 00000KT 6SM HZ SKC
FM022000 16008KT P6SM SCT200
FM030200 VRB03KT P6SM SCT200
FM031100 VRB03KT 5SM HZ SCT200

[Doug Liedblad]

Anyway, now I'm wondering what the "...possible burn area issues" phrase means?

That means watch out for debris flows, i.e. MUD, rocks, trees, etc. that are on the road.

[tipridr]

that was just a cut and paste from the NOOA site- Next Week's rain is supposed to be really bad- I'm not a meteroligist either

[prabjohns]

Wish I could be there. Sadly I am working all weekend.

[Doug Liedblad]

Wish I could be there. Sadly I am working all weekend.

Yes but you get to watch the next blockbuster movie months before we do, about 400 times too.

[prabjohns]

True, but then it takes months to get it out of my head afterwards.
A good 300 mile drive in the Birkin works wonders for that though!